Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Akihabara Regional
decks
7
(2.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
58
33-17-8
overall winrate
63.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.5%
avg ELO +3.6 per match
expected value
56.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1327
· median 1359
· range 1095–1455
(7 pilots with an ELO rating)
988
Q1 1233
Q3 1408
1694
29% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
14% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 17.5% | 7 | 6-1-0 | 85.7% | 72.7% | 66.6% | +8.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.2% | 7 | 0-3-4 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 40.3% | -4.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.6% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 47.9% | -1.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.3% | +7.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.1% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 68.3% | +11.7 |
| Water Allies | 4.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.7% | +15.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +1.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 77.8% | 77.9% | +16.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.5% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 49.6% | -0.2 |
| Water Genbu | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -1.8 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Water Fractal | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.5% | -21.6 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.9% | +12.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Fire Exia | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.7 |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
